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We’re on to NFL Week 15, so it’s time for another peek at the Detroit Lions’ playoff outlook.
The Lions (9-4) didn’t help themselves with a 28-13 loss to the Chicago Bears on Sunday, but their playoff/NFC North odds weren’t drastically altered, either. According to the New York Times’ playoff simulator, the Lions still have a 99 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 91 percent chance to win the NFC North, based on 206,000 simulations.
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That said, the season is far from over, and the Lions have to hold up their end of the bargain and finish on a high note to ultimately accomplish their goals for this season. Let’s take a look at what they must do to win the NFC North, which seeds they’re in the mix for and who they might face come January.
NFC North race
A week ago, the Lions held a three-game lead in the NFC North. That lead is now down to two. Let’s discuss.
The New York Times’ simulator gives the second-place Minnesota Vikings (7-6) an 8 percent chance of winning the division. There are a few scenarios that could get Minnesota over the top.
For example, if the Vikings win their next two and the Lions lose their next two — which would include a head-to-head loss to Minnesota — the Vikings could then control their future heading in Week 17. Their last two games are against the Green Bay Packers and Lions. Say the Vikings win their next three against the Cincinnati Bengals, Lions and Packers, and the Lions go 1-2 (with one loss to Minnesota and another to either Dallas or Denver). That would set up a winner-take-all showdown at Ford Field in Week 18 for the NFC North crown.
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That said, the Vikings aren’t exactly a juggernaut. They beat the Las Vegas Raiders 3-0 last week, while benching Joshua Dobbs in favor of Nick Mullens, who will start again Sunday against the Bengals. Needing to win crucial games with one of those quarterbacks is easier said than done. Minnesota’s defense does look legit, though.
The Packers, meanwhile, came back down to earth with a loss to the Tommy DeVito-led New York Giants. They’re now 6-7 , still three games back of the Lions with four games to go. Even if the Packers win out, they would still have only a 16 percent chance to win the North. That’s the uphill battle they’re facing.
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Here’s one scenario for the Packers: The Lions go 0-3 in their next three, and the Vikings go 1-2 with a win over the Lions during that span. If that happens, and the Packers win their next three, they could control their future in a Week 18 game against the Bears. So, yeah. A lot of moving parts.
The simplest path for the Lions is to win their next two games. If that happens, they’ll clinch the NFC North with two games to go.
Nothing to worry about, right?
Lions seeding picture
What a difference a week makes, huh?
This time last week, the Philadelphia Eagles were atop the NFC, followed by the San Francisco 49ers (No. 2 seed), Lions (No. 3), Falcons (No. 4) and Cowboys (No. 5). But after Week 14’s slate, the only team that remains in its previous place is, well, the Lions.
The 49ers (10-3) have locked in a playoff spot and are now the No. 1 seed in the NFC following a win over the Seahawks (6-7). The Cowboys (10-3) just beat the reeling Eagles, losers of two in a row, to take control of the NFC East. The Lions remained at No. 3, while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) beat the Falcons (6-7) to move into first in the NFC South and the No. 4 spot. The wild-card teams are now the No. 5 Eagles (10-3), No. 6 Vikings (7-6) and No. 7 Packers (6-7).
So where do the Lions stand? They have a three-game lead and a head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over each remaining NFC South team. Per the NYT playoff simulator, the Lions have an 82 percent chance at the No. 3 seed and less than a 1 percent chance of falling to the No. 4 seed, where they’d likely play the second-place NFC East team — either the Cowboys or Eagles. So, bullet dodged.
As for the No. 1 or No. 2 seed? Don’t count on it. The Lions have an 8 percent chance at the No. 2 seed and a 1 percent chance at the No. 1 seed, per the NYT simulator. Even if the Lions win out, their chances of earning the No. 1 seed would improve to only 7 percent. With three 10-3 teams in the mix, the Lions would need some help to snag the No. 2 seed. Not impossible, but not likely.
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Potential playoff opponents
No. 6 Minnesota Vikings (7-6): If the season ended today, the No. 3 Lions would host the No. 6 Vikings at Ford Field. Of all the potential matchups, that one might be most ideal for Detroit. It would pit the Lions against a team with the most questionable QB situation of the realistic playoff opponents they could see in Round 1. Of course, maybe Mullens or Dobbs looks like Tom Brady against this secondary, but that’s a conversation for another time.
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The Vikings have a 62 percent chance to make the playoffs and the highest chance of securing the No. 6 seed at 36 percent, so they’re in good shape right now.
Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Lions, vs. Packers, at Lions.
No. 7 Green Bay Packers (6-7): There was panic in Detroit about the Packers running the table to win the division with a light schedule, but Monday night provided a reminder the NFL isn’t played on paper. The Packers lost to a 4-8 Giants team and their NFC North chances suffered as a result.
That said, the Packers have a 50 percent chance to make the playoffs and could still catch the Vikings for the No. 6 seed. They have a 30 percent chance at it, per the simulator. If the Lions are as locked into No. 3 as they appear to be, they would host the Packers in that scenario. Aaron Rodgers is no longer in town, but that’s a matchup that might make some of you feel uneasy — especially considering the last time these two teams met.
Remaining schedule: vs. Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Vikings, vs. Bears.

No. 8 Los Angeles Rams (6-7): Speaking of uneasy matchups, the Rams are playing some good football at the moment. They had won three in a row heading into Week 14, and took the Ravens — a team that blew out the Lions earlier this season and holds the No. 1 spot in the AFC — to overtime, before eventually losing. Matthew Stafford makes special throws week in and week out, and is still capable of leading a playoff-caliber team at almost 36 years old. Stafford returning to Ford Field for a playoff game is a story that writes itself. But the Rams are currently on the outside looking in, and have only a 14 percent chance at the No. 6 seed.
Remaining schedule: vs. Commanders, vs. Saints, at Giants, at 49ers.
No. 9 Seattle Seahawks (6-7): We’re now getting into the portion of teams that would be happy to grab the No. 7 seed and might not even have a shot at the Lions. But we’ll include them regardless. The Seahawks feel like one of those teams. While they’re 6-7 and just a game out of the playoffs, they’ve lost four in a row and play an Eagles team looking to get right in Week 15. The Seahawks could easily be 6-8 after this week.
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The NYT simulator gives Seattle an 8 percent chance at the No. 6 seed. That’s probably good news for Dan Campbell’s Lions, who’ve lost to Pete Carroll’s Seahawks three years in a row.
Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, at Titans, vs. Steelers, at Cardinals.
The NFC South trio (6-7): The Buccaneers, Falcons and Saints are all 6-7. The Buccaneers are in first place after beating the Falcons Sunday. It’s possible one of these teams emerges and another snags a wild-card spot. Just not the No. 6 seed, where they’d face the No. 3 Lions.
The NYT simulator gives the Buccaneers a 2 percent chance at the No. 6 seed. The Falcons and Saints have a 1 percent chance at the No. 6 seed. Hard to envision either of these teams playing the Lions in the first round.
Buccaneers’ remaining schedule: at Packers, vs. Jaguars, vs. Saints, at Panthers.
Falcons’ remaining schedule: at Panthers, vs. Colts, at Bears, at Saints.
Saints’ remaining schedule: vs. Giants, at Rams, at Buccaneers, vs. Falcons.
(Top photo of Jared Goff: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)
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